From LEAF Farmer Duncan Farrington
January Newsletter
With a new year upon us,
and the time to make plans and look ahead, I am nailing my flag to the post to make a few predictions for food and farming in 2008. On the whole British agriculture is in a far better state than twelve months ago. Not down to the skills of hard working farmers, but more a case of events way beyond our control.
World demand for food will continue to rise, especially in China, Asia and North Africa, putting pressure on the ability of the world to feed itself for the next couple of years, whilst production struggles to keep pace. This demand will continue to keep commodity prices high, which in turn will ensure the era of cheap food is over for the near future, and supermarkets will no longer be able to help government strategy of using food as a tool for low inflation. With bread and milk prices already rising, during 2008 meat is likely follow suit as our livestock farmers will have to pass on the price rises in their feed costs.
As food becomes more expensive, the shopper will continue to demand ever higher standards in taste, quality and provenance. This will be shown by continued growth in the premium food sector, and the abundance of genuine choice in British food culture that the best food retailers, both big and small are excellent at providing for their customers. Look out for more choice in artisan food retail outlets, and larger retailers championing local small producers. Also new artisan food producers from quality local vegetable box schemes, to healthy soft drink brands, and continued growth in local cheeses, breads and meats. It will be a year of Classic British Food, with a modern contemporary twist, all with health and environmental credentials being essential.
Along with continued increase in demand for food from our farms, 2008 and beyond will see more entrepreneurial farmers ‘grow’ energy on their farms, as both the economic pressures of high fossil fuel prices, and the political pressure from all parties for reducing our carbon foot print gathers pace. Wind farms will appear on the horizon, vehicles will be driving along our roads using fuel made from wheat, rapeseed and sugar beet. Our used tea bags and vegetable peelings will be composted and returned to farm land, as will much of what we flush down our toilets. Enormous bio-digesters will be built to digest animal manures and food waste, working much like a cow’s stomach, rather than flatulence of methane being a cause of global warming, it will be used to produce electricity. You may even see your local farmer deliver fuel grown on his farm to heat local schools and other public buildings. As pressures on our limited resources continue, the emotive topic of genetically modified crops may start to be discussed again with a debate on the environmental benefits they can provide.
Whatever the next twelve months and beyond holds for us, I personally think British agriculture is in for an exciting time, providing high quality foods, with great care for the environment and excellent welfare conditions it is produced in. Also an industry being part of the solution needed to deliver global environmental benefits. Some of the issues will use the very latest innovations and technologies, not all of which may be initially welcomed by society. But whatever the year holds, it is vital that farmers continue to talk to their non-farming neighbours, and wider community to explain many of the mysteries that go on, on our farms.
As for my predictions, at least if they prove to be a load of New Year rubbish not to be re-cycled, by the time next year comes, we will all be so pre-occupied trying to workout our personal carbon footprint number, that we won’t remember what I said.
